3月暴跌重演？土耳其政治风险再起：反对党号召抗议，股债重挫

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected court ruling in Turkey has raised concerns about the country's democratic system, leading to significant market reactions and potential political instability for the main opposition party, CHP [1][2]. Group 1: Political Developments - A Turkish court ordered the dismissal of the leadership of the CHP in Istanbul, which could disrupt the party's plans to challenge President Erdogan [1]. - The court's decision invalidated the CHP's Istanbul congress and revoked its provincial management, potentially leading to a collapse of the opposition's national leadership [1][3]. - The upcoming hearing on September 15 will focus on the legality of the opposition party's congress, which could result in the loss of CHP leader Ozel's position if deemed invalid [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the court ruling, Turkey's stock market experienced a decline, with a market value loss of $9.2 billion, and the benchmark index fell by 2.4% [1][2]. - The yield on Turkey's two-year lira bonds rose by 96 basis points, reaching its highest level since July, indicating increased investor anxiety [2]. - The political turmoil coincides with the Turkish central bank's recent decision to restart its interest rate cut cycle due to easing inflation [2]. Group 3: Historical Context - Ozel became the CHP leader in 2023, succeeding Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who had a long tenure but was criticized for poor performance in the presidential elections [3]. - The CHP has faced a series of legal challenges since achieving significant victories in local elections, which some party officials believe are politically motivated [3][4]. - The arrest of popular CHP figure Imamoglu in March 2023 marked a peak in political tensions, as he was seen as a major threat to Erdogan's power [4].