全球长债抛售潮！债务危机警钟敲响

Core Viewpoint - The global bond market is experiencing significant sell-off pressure, leading to a surge in long-term bond yields across multiple countries [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond has risen to 5%, marking the first increase since July [2] - Japan's 30-year bond yield has reached a historic high, while the 20-year bond yield has climbed to its highest level since 1999 [3] - Germany's 30-year bond yield increased by 2 basis points to 3.4340%, the highest level since July 2011 [4] - The UK 30-year bond yield briefly reached 5.735%, the highest since May 1998, with the 20-year and 10-year yields also hitting their highest levels since 1998 and January 2025, respectively [4] - France's 30-year bond yield is nearing 4.5%, the highest since 2009 [5] Group 2: Underlying Causes of Market Turmoil - The turmoil in the global bond market is attributed to heightened investor concerns regarding national debt levels [6] - In the US, the federal government's deficit for the current fiscal year is projected at $1.7 trillion, slightly down from $1.83 trillion in fiscal 2024, but still at a high level [6] - Concerns about the effectiveness of Trump's tariff policies in reducing the deficit have been raised, with significant uncertainty surrounding future revenue estimates [6] - In France, a no-confidence vote regarding the government's debt reduction plan is expected, with predictions that Prime Minister Borne may not survive the vote [6] - In the UK, recent cabinet reshuffles have failed to alleviate investor concerns about the country's fiscal situation, characterized by high borrowing and sluggish economic growth [6] Group 3: Political Uncertainty and Debt Sustainability - Political uncertainty in Japan, particularly regarding Prime Minister Kishida's leadership, is contributing to investor anxiety [7] - The global sustainability of debt is becoming a deeper concern, with investors demanding higher risk premiums for long-term bonds [7] - Analysts warn of a vicious cycle where rising debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn worsen debt dynamics [7] - The International Monetary Fund predicts that global public debt could exceed 95% of GDP by 2025, complicating efforts for fiscal consolidation [7]