油价，突然跳水！

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude falling nearly 2% and WTI crude dropping over 2% during trading sessions [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss increasing oil production among eight member countries in an upcoming meeting, aiming to regain market share [5]. - If the production increase plan is implemented, OPEC+'s crude oil output could account for about half of global supply, potentially lifting the current reduction measures of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents 1.6% of global oil demand [5]. - OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional 300,000 barrels per day allocated to the UAE [5]. Group 2: Global Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day [6][7]. - For 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day [7]. - The upward revision in demand forecasts is attributed to improved economic growth expectations in certain regions, including the OECD, Middle East, and Africa [7]. Group 3: Future Oil Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude futures could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026 [8]. - The firm expects a daily oversupply of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global oil inventories by nearly 800 million barrels [8]. - The accumulation of oil stocks, particularly in OECD countries, coincides with a decline in oil demand in these regions, which is expected to further depress oil prices [8].