油价，突然跳水

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil dropping over 2% during trading sessions [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss further increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, with eight member countries involved, aiming to regain market share [5]. - If the production increase plan is implemented, OPEC+'s crude oil output will account for about half of global supply, potentially lifting the current reduction measures of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents 1.6% of global oil demand [5]. - OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day for the UAE [5]. Group 2: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day [6][7]. - For 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day, with the 2026 forecast being adjusted due to improved economic growth expectations in certain regions [7]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude oil prices could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026 [8]. - The firm expects a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global oil inventories by nearly 800 million barrels [8]. - The accumulation of oil stocks, particularly in OECD countries, is expected to coincide with a decrease in oil demand in these regions, further exerting downward pressure on prices [8].