油价突然跳水！欧佩克+据悉将于周日会议讨论进一步增产

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil dropping over 2% during trading on September 3rd [2][4]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss further increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, with eight member countries participating. This move aims to regain market share, potentially leading to a cancellation of the second phase of production cuts, which currently stands at approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global oil demand [6]. - Previously, OPEC+ had agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day for the UAE. However, actual production increases have not met these commitments due to some countries needing to compensate for previous overproduction and others facing capacity constraints [7]. Group 2: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC's monthly oil market report from August 12 indicated an upward revision in the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day. The 2025 forecast remains unchanged, with an expected increase of 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day [8]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oil surplus in 2026, Brent crude oil futures prices could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026. The firm expects a daily supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels, with one-third of this inventory stored in OECD member countries [8][9]. - The forecast suggests that while oil prices may remain stable near current forward contract levels in 2025, this balance is expected to break in 2026, with Brent's "fair value" projected to decrease from the current $70 range to the $50 range, particularly as inventories continue to accumulate [9].