Nucor Gains 20% in 3 Months: How Should Investors Play the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation (NUE) has shown strong performance in the stock market, with a 20.1% increase over the past three months, outperforming both the Zacks Steel Producers industry and the S&P 500 [1][7] Financial Performance - Nucor missed earnings estimates in the second quarter but reported higher profits across its segments, driven by increased shipment volumes and higher average selling prices in its steel mill segment [1] - The company's top line rose by 5%, exceeding estimates [1] Market Comparison - Among major U.S. steel-making peers, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has seen a decline of 4.4% in the past three months, while Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has experienced a significant rally of 38.6% [2] Technical Indicators - Nucor has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since June 2, 2025, and is also above its 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend following a golden crossover on July 30, 2025 [5][6] Growth Projects - Nucor is committed to increasing production capacity through various growth projects, including the Apple Grove sheet mill and the Lexington rebar micro mill, which are expected to meet strong demand from construction, military, and energy sectors [10] - The company has a healthy order backlog and has already commissioned some growth projects, showing strong production and shipment performance [10] Strategic Acquisitions - Nucor has focused on growth through strategic acquisitions, including the recent buyout of Southwest Data Products and Rytec Corporation, which will expand its product portfolio and create cross-selling opportunities [11] Financial Health - Nucor ended the second quarter of 2025 with strong liquidity of approximately $3.4 billion and has amended its revolving credit facility to increase borrowing capacity [12] - The company has returned around $13.2 billion to shareholders since 2020, with a commitment to return at least 40% of annual net earnings [13] Dividend Information - Nucor offers a dividend yield of 1.5% with a payout ratio of 36%, indicating a sustainable dividend policy backed by strong financial health [14] Steel Price Trends - A recent pullback in U.S. steel prices poses challenges for Nucor, with hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices dropping below $800 per short ton due to overall demand weakness and abundant steel mill output [15][16] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nucor's earnings for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upward over the past 60 days, reflecting positive sentiment [17] Valuation Concerns - Nucor is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.88, which is a 37.9% premium to the peer group average, raising concerns about its valuation [18] Investment Outlook - Nucor's expansion efforts and strategic acquisitions are positive, but the company faces challenges from the steel industry's price volatility and its stretched valuation, suggesting a hold strategy for current investors [21]