大摩：铀市场供需格局生变 价格上行潜力可观

Core Viewpoint - The global uranium market is undergoing significant changes, with a tightening supply and strong demand leading to an optimistic price outlook, projected to reach $87 per pound by Q4 2025 [1][2] Supply Dynamics - Supply disruptions are notable, with Cameco reducing its McArthur River mine production forecast for 2025 to 14-15 million pounds from a previous estimate of 18 million pounds due to freeze and development delays [1] - Kazatomprom has also lowered its 2026 production forecast from 32,777 tons (approximately 85 million pounds U308) to 29,697 tons, a reduction of about 8 million pounds, primarily from its Budenovskoye joint venture [1] - The market gap for 2025 is expected to widen from 10 million pounds to 14 million pounds due to these supply cuts and a tight balance [1] Demand Trends - Spot demand has been steadily increasing, with Sprott raising $200 million and purchasing approximately 2.3 million pounds of uranium since June, significantly boosting spot market demand [2] - Although this buying spree may pause once funds are exhausted, other spot purchases are likely to emerge as some producers rely on the spot market or inventory to meet delivery obligations due to limited production [2] - Potential contract demand is also on the rise, with Cameco reporting a decrease in inventory from 11 million pounds at the end of 2024 to 8 million pounds [2] - Paladin noted a procurement request of 9 million pounds in the Korean market that has not been fulfilled in the past two years, with expectations for active purchasing this year [2] - Europe also has substantial uncovered demand that may lead to increased procurement within the year [2] Overall Market Outlook - The global uranium market is entering a phase of tightening supply and releasing demand, with Morgan Stanley maintaining a bullish outlook on uranium, suggesting that current pullbacks present a buying opportunity, benefiting from structural energy transition trends in the medium to long term [2]