Something Strange Is Happening To Gold This September

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, driven by investor demand amid inflation and economic uncertainty [1] - Despite its status as a safe-haven asset, gold has historically performed poorly in September, with a win rate of only 20% over the past decade [4][5] - The average return for gold in September over the last 20 years is -0.3%, indicating a trend of losses during this month [5] Historical Performance - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has shown average September losses of 0.98% over the past 20 years, highlighting a challenging month for equities [3] - Gold's performance in September has been particularly weak, with eight out of the last ten years ending in losses, averaging a return of -1.81% [4][7] - In years where gold had double-digit gains through August, September has typically followed with an average loss of 1.73% [7][9] Recent Trends - As of August 2025, gold was up 31% year-to-date, influenced by central bank buying and strong ETF inflows, but this could lead to a potential downturn in September [8][11] - Historical data shows that after significant gains in August, gold often experiences a decline in September, with an average loss of -2.1% in such cases [10][12] - The performance of gold in September 2024 was an exception, with a gain of 5.2%, contrasting with the trend of losses in the preceding seven years [5][6]