美国消费永远增长的神话即将破灭？普华永道发出警告

Core Insights - The PwC report indicates that U.S. consumers expect their holiday spending to decrease by an average of 5% compared to 2024, marking the first significant decline since 2020 [2][3] - Over 80% of U.S. consumers anticipate cutting back on spending in the next six months due to factors such as new tariffs, rising prices, and increased living costs [2] - The report highlights a notable trend among Generation Z (under 27 years old), who expect a 23% reduction in spending compared to the previous year, contrasting sharply with a 37% increase in 2024 [2] Consumer Behavior Trends - Ali Furman from PwC notes that Generation Z is particularly sensitive to value and cost transparency, viewing alternative products not as downgrades but as smart shopping choices [6] - This generation prioritizes experiences over material goods, often choosing to spend on concert tickets, hotel stays, and flights rather than new items, which reflects the pressures of rising experience costs [6] - The emerging trend of "reward economy" is seen as an upgrade from the "lipstick economy," focusing on emotional value and consumer differentiation, but it may lead to increased spending without proper financial planning [6] Financial Indicators - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reports that the proportion of Americans only making minimum credit card payments is nearing historical highs [7] - TransUnion's research shows a shift from high-interest credit card debt to personal loans, with personal loan issuance increasing by 18% year-over-year, reaching a record balance of $257 billion [7] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 58.6 in August, driven by pessimism regarding the current economic situation, breaking a four-month growth streak [7]