Medifast (MED) Up 6.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Insights - Medifast's Q2 2025 results showed both net sales and earnings beating estimates, despite year-over-year declines in both metrics [2][3] - The company reported a significant drop in the number of active earning OPTAVIA coaches, impacting revenues [4][5] Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings were reported at 22 cents per share, with adjusted earnings at four cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of break-even earnings [3] - Net revenues totaled $105.6 million, a decline of 37.4% year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $95 million [4] - Gross profit was $76.6 million, down 37.9% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 72.6%, a decrease of 60 basis points [6] - Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) fell 40.8% year-over-year to $77.7 million, primarily due to reduced OPTAVIA coach compensation [7] - The loss from operations improved to $1.1 million, representing 1% of revenues compared to 4.7% in the previous year [8] Financial Health - As of June 30, 2025, Medifast had cash, cash equivalents, and investment securities totaling $162.7 million, with no debt and total shareholders' equity of $216 million [9] Future Outlook - The company anticipates third-quarter 2025 revenues between $70 million and $90 million, with expected losses ranging from 60 cents to break-even [10] - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with a consensus estimate shift of -116.67% [11][12] Industry Context - Medifast operates within the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry, where competitor Lamb Weston reported a revenue increase of 4% year-over-year [15] - Lamb Weston is also experiencing a downward trend in earnings estimates, with a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [16]