Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-09-03 22:17Core Viewpoint - The coal, coke, and steel industry chain is experiencing price adjustments despite positive expectations for the construction peak season in September and October, driven by a consensus against "involution" in the industry [1][6]. Price Trends - Since July, steel prices have rebounded from a low point, with significant increases in upstream coke and coking coal prices providing cost support for the downstream market [1][4]. - By the end of July, the average price of rebar increased by 6.8% compared to the low point in June, with nearly 20 steel mills adjusting their prices upward by 20 to 100 yuan per ton [3][4]. - After a period of price fluctuations, steel prices are expected to trend upward in September, although macroeconomic policy effects and demand realization need to be monitored [1][3]. Industry Response - The steel industry is actively resisting "involution" competition, leading to improved operational conditions for companies like Anyang Iron and Steel, which reported a net profit of 38.06 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies are shifting focus towards high-end, intelligent, and green production methods, which has led to better performance metrics compared to industry averages [3][4]. Coke Market Dynamics - The coke market has seen seven rounds of price increases since July, with prices rising by 385 yuan per ton, a 28% increase, due to supply-demand dynamics and cost pressures [4][5]. - Analysts expect that while there may be a slight price drop in September, strong macroeconomic policies and good steel mill profits will support continued demand for coke [5][6]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The steel industry is currently experiencing a controlled supply environment, with expectations for demand recovery in September and October, leading to a steady increase in steel prices [6][7]. - The production of crude steel has decreased by 3.1% year-on-year from January to July, and ongoing policies to control production are expected to limit significant increases in output [6][7]. - The construction sector is anticipated to see a resurgence in demand due to the arrival of the traditional peak season, supported by government policies aimed at boosting infrastructure investment [7].