Economic Activity - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has remained nearly unchanged over the past six weeks, with most regions reporting "flat or slight declines" [1] - Out of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, 11 reported no significant changes in economic activity, while one district experienced a slight decline [1] - Consumer spending is reported to be "flat or declining," primarily due to wage growth lagging behind rising prices, putting more pressure on household budgets [1] Inflation and Costs - All regions reported varying degrees of price increases, with 10 districts describing inflation as "moderate or modest," while two districts reported "strong input cost growth" [1] - Tariffs have led to price increases across nearly all regions, particularly in industries heavily reliant on imports, with businesses passing on costs through price hikes [2] - A local coffee roaster in New York noted that tariffs on Brazilian coffee and other raw materials have impacted the entire supply chain [2] Employment Market - The employment levels across 11 districts were reported to be "almost unchanged," with only one district noting a slight decline [2] - There is a noticeable reduction in immigrant labor, particularly in the construction sectors of New York, Richmond, St. Louis, and San Francisco, exacerbated by stricter immigration policies [2] - While white-collar candidates prefer remote or hybrid work, there is less selectivity in accepting job offers, whereas physical labor positions remain easier to fill despite an overall contraction in job numbers [2] Consumer Behavior - Rising living costs have increased demand for basic needs among low-income groups, affecting spending patterns [1] - Due to slow wage growth, consumer purchasing power has declined, leading to more cautious spending behavior [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Beige Book reflects a weak economic situation, increasing market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Analysts suggest that if the August non-farm payroll report is poor, it will almost "lock in" the decision for a rate cut in September [3] - A potential 25 basis point cut is anticipated as a moderate measure to balance inflation and employment concerns [3]
美联储褐皮书:美国经济活动近乎停滞 关税推升物价压力
智通财经网·2025-09-03 22:24