内外因素推动 人民币汇率有望继续走强

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a combination of internal and external factors, with expectations for the RMB to maintain stability at a reasonable equilibrium level in the future [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of September 3, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1468, an increase of 8 basis points from the previous trading day [2][4]. - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate showed a slight decline, reported at 7.1459, down 74 basis points from the previous close [2]. - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted downwards to 7.1108, a decrease of 19 basis points [2]. - From August 29 to September 3, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated by 0.64% and 0.88% respectively, while year-to-date increases were 2.08% and 2.61% [2]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The RMB's rapid appreciation is attributed to multiple factors, including a weaker US dollar and improved cross-border capital flows [4][6]. - The decline in the US dollar index has created a favorable external environment, while the RMB's middle price has provided strong expectations for future appreciation [4][6]. - The recent performance of the domestic equity market has attracted foreign capital inflows, further supporting the RMB's strength [4][6]. Economic Outlook - Experts believe that the current positive momentum in China's economy will be further solidified, contributing to the stability of the RMB exchange rate [5][6]. - Continued policy support and structural economic transformation are expected to provide a solid foundation for the RMB's stable performance [5][6]. - The RMB is anticipated to gradually converge in value across onshore, offshore, and central parity rates, with ongoing demand for currency settlement supporting its strength [6].