国际能源署报告显示——供过于求加剧国际石油市场失衡

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global oil demand growth of 680,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a downward revision of 20,000 bpd from the previous month, and 700,000 bpd in 2026 [1] - The IEA has raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast by 370,000 bpd, expecting a supply increase of 2.5 million bpd this year and an upward revision of 620,000 bpd to 1.9 million bpd in 2026 [1] - The report indicates that the global oil demand growth forecast has been reduced by a total of 350,000 bpd since the beginning of the year, primarily due to weak demand from major economies and low consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - In July, global oil supply remained stable at 105.6 million bpd, with OPEC+ countries reducing production by 230,000 bpd, offset by increases from non-OPEC+ producers [2] - OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by an additional 547,000 bpd in September, indicating a full reversal of the 2.2 million bpd production cut agreement reached in November 2023 [2] - Global crude oil processing reached a record high of 85.6 million bpd in August, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 1.6 million bpd in Q3 2025, significantly higher than the average growth of 130,000 bpd in the first half of this year [2] Group 3 - Global oil inventories increased for the fifth consecutive month in June, rising by 28.1 million barrels to a total of 7.836 billion barrels, the highest level in 46 months [3] - The report highlights that international oil prices are influenced by multiple factors, including new sanctions on Russia and Iran, and threats from the U.S. to pressure major buyers of Russian oil [3] - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated around $70 per barrel throughout July, with volatility dropping to historical lows, but fell below $67 per barrel following OPEC+ production agreements in early August [3]