Group 1 - The commodity market has cooled down significantly after a surge, with various products experiencing substantial corrections, indicating a shift from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1][4] - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit margin for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton, as rebar prices fell from 3400 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton [1][2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to insufficient destocking, with prices dropping from a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton within two weeks [4][5] Group 2 - The black series futures have seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with rebar prices dropping over 300 yuan/ton from their July 30 high of 3439 yuan/ton [2][3] - The average cost of steel billets in Tangshan increased by 8 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the current ex-factory price is 2950 yuan/ton, leading to a loss for steel mills [2][3] - The lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of over 85,000 tons, marking a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by spodumene [4][5] Group 3 - The market sentiment has deteriorated, with expectations for destocking during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to short-term price corrections [5] - The overall supply capacity in the lithium industry has improved, although some flexible production lines have shifted to lithium carbonate production, contributing to increased output [4][5] - Future market dynamics may find a balance between policy expectations and fundamental constraints, with potential short-term recovery in market sentiment [5]
市场降温 黑色系期货多品种价格回落
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-09-03 23:43