美联储卡什卡利：利率有下行空间 但未明确降息时机

Core Viewpoint - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari indicated that there is room for the Federal Reserve to lower short-term benchmark interest rates in the near term, although he did not provide a specific timeline for policy easing [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing a cooling process, but Kashkari does not predict an economic recession [1] - There are sufficient reasons to believe that the current economic slowdown will continue and evolve in a moderate manner [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Kashkari estimates the neutral federal funds rate to be around 3%, suggesting that there is potential for rate decreases in the coming years [1] - His statements support market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a loosening cycle [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Challenges - Current monetary policy faces complex challenges, with inflation levels still above target despite a decline [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, including slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1] - Kashkari emphasized the need for careful balancing between controlling inflation and maintaining full employment [1] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Expectations - Recent economic data indicates a weakening growth momentum in the U.S., particularly with significant contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - This has heightened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may start lowering interest rates in the upcoming September or November meetings [1]