智通财经网·2025-09-04 00:56Core Viewpoint - Since the end of April, gold has entered a volatile market due to a complex balance of factors including tariff impacts, U.S. fiscal policies, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases. However, changes in these factors may initiate an upward trend for gold prices, with a model prediction from CITIC Securities suggesting gold prices could exceed $3,730 per ounce by year-end under a neutral scenario [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Conditions - Gold has been in a volatile market since late April, influenced by a series of short-term factors that have reached a balance [2]. Bullish Factors - The inflationary pressure from Trump's tariff policies is beginning to manifest, with U.S. CPI inflation rising month-on-month from May to July, while non-farm employment has shown a notable decline. Private sector consumption growth in Q2 was also weak, indicating the initial effects of tariff-induced stagflation [3]. - Geopolitical instability has persisted in Q2, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and escalating tensions in the Israel-Palestine conflict [3]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are becoming clearer, influenced by pressure from Trump on the Fed and actions regarding Fed board appointments [3]. Bearish Factors - Since late April, market expectations regarding the intensity of Trump's tariff policies have cooled. Following a sharp tariff shock on April 2, the Trump administration has shifted to a more pragmatic negotiation phase, leading to a decline in tariff policy expectations [4]. - Global central bank net gold purchases slowed in Q2, with approximately 166 tons purchased, reflecting a year-on-year decline according to the World Gold Council [4]. - There are signs of a recovery in risk appetite within China's capital markets, with strong performance in the A-share market suppressing domestic gold market inflows [4]. Changing Dynamics Favoring Gold - Expectations regarding tariff policy uncertainty have decreased significantly, while the stagflation effects of tariffs may gradually emerge, supporting higher gold prices. Trump has claimed to have reached trade agreements with major partners, reducing market risk expectations, although future volatility risks remain [5]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to lead to uncontrolled expansion of U.S. national debt, with an anticipated additional $500 billion deficit next year, which may limit the economic support from this act. The act's tax cuts primarily benefit middle and high-income groups, while spending cuts affect low-income groups, potentially limiting its economic support effectiveness [5]. - Geopolitical factors are not expected to negatively impact gold this year, with ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict likely to persist for an extended period [5]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a more proactive rate-cutting path, potentially leading to a more stable bull market for gold. Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole conference suggest a shift towards a more accommodative stance, with early rate cuts likely to elevate inflation risks above the risks of an economic hard landing, stabilizing the upward trend for gold [5]. - Global central bank gold purchases remain a crucial support factor, with a focus on the value of gold purchases rather than weight, indicating ongoing expansion in central bank gold holdings [6].