Industrial Securities(SH:601377) 智通财经网·2025-09-04 01:02Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks is optimistic, with short-term recovery driven by the revaluation of the Hang Seng Tech Index and global capital allocation needs, suggesting a slow bull market trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - Since the beginning of 2024, Hong Kong and A-shares have shown a positive correlation, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese equities [2]. - The liquidity environment in Hong Kong has been tightening since late June 2025, but improvements are expected as the Hong Kong dollar has moved away from the weak end of its trading band [2]. - The earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index has been downgraded, but a turnaround is anticipated post mid-year earnings reports [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The expectation of a long bull market in Chinese equities is supported by the unique financial development path of China, creating a positive feedback loop between the stock market and economic policies [3]. - The shift of social wealth from safe-haven assets to equities is a key variable for the mid-term market [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The AI technology, military technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics sectors are experiencing breakthroughs, boosting market confidence [4]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently undervalued compared to global indices, with a forecast P/E ratio of 20.3, indicating potential for recovery [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The recommendation is to selectively invest in technology stocks, particularly in the internet sector, which is expected to recover from recent challenges [7]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector remains a strategic focus, with September identified as a good time for investment [8]. - In the new consumption sector, patience is advised in identifying alpha opportunities, with mid-year reports serving as a critical evaluation point [9].