美国劳动力市场现放缓迹象 美联储降息预期升温

Group 1 - The latest data from the U.S. Labor Department shows that job vacancies in July fell to 7.18 million, the lowest in nearly 10 months, and below economists' expectations of 7.38 million, indicating a cautious hiring attitude among businesses and a weakening labor demand amid increasing policy uncertainty [1] - The healthcare, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality sectors are the main areas where job vacancies have decreased, with healthcare vacancies reaching their lowest level since 2021, despite being a key driver of employment growth this year [1] - Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro Research noted that the decline in job vacancies is primarily concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, as well as state and local government sectors, which typically do not fluctuate with economic cycles, suggesting that continued weakness in these "non-cyclical" sectors could significantly pressure overall employment growth [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated his long-standing position advocating for a rate cut at the next meeting, emphasizing the need to act before labor market deterioration occurs, as employment conditions can worsen rapidly [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed a similar view, suggesting that the current policy is somewhat tight and that a 25 basis point rate cut may be appropriate in the remaining months of the year due to the slowdown in the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as labor market indicators show weakness, while concerns about high inflation persist, exacerbated by tariff policies from the previous administration [3]