“反内卷”政策推动，光伏价格修复，关注光伏50ETF（159864）

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price recovery driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with potential consolidation through mergers and acquisitions to address excess capacity [1][3]. Industry Summary - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) rose by 2.26% on September 3, indicating strong market performance [1]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to significant differentiation across industries, with the photovoltaic sector showing strong fundamental support for continued investor interest [1]. - The photovoltaic industry is gradually bottoming out, with a projected year-on-year revenue decline of 9.7% for core companies in the first half of 2025, but improved operating rates and revenue in the second quarter due to domestic demand [1]. - The industry faced losses in the first half of the year, but the loss margin decreased in the second quarter, with a potential turnaround in profitability when excluding impairment losses [1]. Price Dynamics - The main pressure on the photovoltaic sector is the pricing within the supply chain, with negative gross margins reported for silicon wafers in the second quarter [1]. - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to stabilize and recover supply chain prices, which could alleviate cash flow pressures for companies [1]. Market Sentiment - The rebound in the photovoltaic sector is attributed to the emergence of news regarding the formation of an OPEC-like organization among leading companies to promote capacity consolidation [3]. - Companies are expected to undertake mergers and acquisitions to manage excess capacity and debt, with a goal to complete these actions within the year [3]. - There is a strong market expectation for controlling upstream silicon material capacity to enhance downstream pricing, which could further restore industry prices if effectively implemented [3].