概率超95%，美联储9月降息板上钉钉？港股三大指数集体高开

Group 1 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has significantly increased, leading to a collective rise in Hong Kong's three major indices, with the Hang Seng Index opening up by 0.57% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.74% [1] - The U.S. economic Beige Book indicates that consumer spending is flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with inflation, and job vacancies fell to 7.181 million in July, a ten-month low, below the expected 7.382 million [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is as high as 96.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [1] Group 2 - The improvement in global liquidity is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the high-growth and high-volatility tech sector, which is currently undervalued [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is more sensitive to changes in the U.S.-China interest rate differential and is likely to experience stronger upward momentum due to improved liquidity narratives, potentially leading to a "catch-up" rally [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account can consider the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core Chinese AI assets [2]