欧洲市场不确定性加剧，剧烈调整后预期逐渐企稳

Group 1 - European financial markets are expected to enter a cautious stabilization phase after significant declines, influenced by inflation expectations, central bank policies, fiscal pressures, and political uncertainties [1] - Eurozone member states plan to issue over €100 billion in new bonds in September, raising concerns about supply excess and higher required yields from investors [1][2] - Political risks in specific countries, such as France's government facing a confidence vote, have exacerbated fiscal concerns and widened the yield spread between French and German bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The European bond market experienced significant turbulence, with the 30-year German bond yield rising to 3.41%, the highest since 2011, and the 30-year French bond yield reaching 4.52%, the highest since 2009 [2] - Rising government bond yields are seen as a warning signal for financial markets, indicating concerns over current policy paths and leading to higher term premiums [2] - The DAX index fell by 2.29%, and major U.S. stock indices also faced pressure, reflecting the impact of rising bond yields on equity markets [2] Group 3 - U.S.-EU trade tensions have escalated, with the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, potentially leading to a trade conflict [3] - The inflation data released for the Eurozone showed a 2.1% year-on-year increase in consumer prices for August, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 4 - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Isabel Schnabel reinforced hawkish expectations, suggesting current rates should remain unchanged and warning of potential inflation risks from tariffs and fiscal expansion [4] - Market expectations indicate that the ECB is unlikely to take further action this year, contributing to rising long-term bond yields [4] Group 5 - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing of such cuts [5] - Upcoming economic data, particularly related to the U.S. labor market, is expected to significantly impact market conditions and Fed decision-making [5][6] Group 6 - The focus of the market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and frequency of rate cuts," with any comments from ECB President Lagarde potentially influencing the Eurozone bond market [6] - Investor sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that buying on dips may be replaced by selling on highs, leading to negative market effects [6]