乙二醇：强现实 弱预期 MEG下探寻底

Supply and Demand - As of August 28, the comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 75.13%, an increase of 1.97%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate was 77.74%, a decrease of 3.51% [2] - As of September 1, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was approximately 449,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - The current supply-demand pattern for ethylene glycol is characterized by "strong reality, weak expectations" [3] - Port inventories remain low, and the volume of incoming goods in early September is expected to be neutral to slightly low, indicating potential for further inventory decline [3] - Entering the demand peak season is expected to support ethylene glycol prices in the short term, with limited downside potential for futures [3] - However, the supply-demand expectations for the fourth quarter are weaker due to the seasonal decline in demand and anticipated high domestic supply, leading to a potential accumulation phase for ethylene glycol [3] - The strategy suggests monitoring EG2601 support around 4300 [3] Spot Market - On September 3, ethylene glycol prices were consolidating at low levels, with market discussions remaining acceptable [1] - The spot market transactions for ethylene glycol were reported at a premium of 86-92 yuan/ton for the 01 contract, with some suppliers participating in replenishment [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices were consolidating at low levels, with recent transactions around 520-522 USD/ton [1]