深度中报观察丨三位药店人讲述：从疯狂开店到加速关门，药店数量将再减少三分之一

Industry Overview - The chain pharmacy industry in China has experienced rapid growth over the past 15 years, with the number of pharmacies increasing from 381,400 in 2009 to over 680,000 by the end of 2024, resulting in a market size exceeding 153.1 billion yuan [1] - The average number of pharmacies per 10,000 people in China is 4.6, significantly higher than in Japan and the United States [1] Current Challenges - The industry is showing signs of deceleration, with approximately 39,000 retail pharmacies closing in 2024, marking the first negative growth phase for the number of pharmacies [2][6] - In the first quarter of 2025, there was a net decrease of about 3,000 pharmacies [2] - Major pharmacy chains, such as 老百姓 (603883.SH), have indicated a pause in expansion plans, with a net increase of only 108 stores in the first half of the year, including a reduction of 197 direct stores [2] Market Dynamics - The rapid expansion of pharmacies was driven by capital inflow, leading to a bubble in the number of pharmacies, with many opening not for selling drugs but for selling the pharmacies themselves [6][12] - The current market sentiment has shifted from expansion to survival, with discussions among industry leaders now focused on how to stay afloat rather than how to grow [7][13] Financial Performance - The profit margins for many listed pharmacy companies have drastically declined, with net profit margins reported between 1% and 3% [13] - The average gross margin for pharmacies is around 20%, but after accounting for various costs, the actual profitability is significantly lower [10][11] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a continued decline in the number of pharmacies, with estimates suggesting a reduction to around 400,000 pharmacies over the next three to five years [12] - The current structural changes in the industry indicate a shift from broad-based growth to a more sustainable model, focusing on efficiency rather than sheer scale [17]