债市趋稳鹰派立场欧元稳

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a slight decline against the US dollar, trading around 1.16, with a current quote of 1.1653, reflecting a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day's close of 1.1658 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The overall turmoil in the global bond market appears to have eased, leading to a more stable market environment that supports the euro [1] - Market participants are shifting their focus back to fundamentals and the relative outlook of central bank policies [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - ECB Governing Council member Müller expressed a preference for maintaining current interest rates, aligning with market expectations for the ECB's meetings in September and October [1] - The market currently prices in approximately 8 basis points for a potential rate cut by the ECB in December, suggesting that if this expectation is removed, it could provide support for the euro [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the euro is at 50, indicating a neutral position, while the euro/USD continues to consolidate around the 50-day moving average of 1.1666 [1] - Over the past month, the trading range for the euro/USD has remained stable between the support level of the upper 1.15s and the resistance level of the mid to lower 1.17s, with expectations for short-term fluctuations between 1.1600 and 1.1700 [1]