夏春：黄金创历史新高，比预期来得快一些

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding $4500, if central bank gold reserves reach half of their historical high of 75% [1][2] - Gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with spot prices surpassing $3600, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are influenced by a projected downward revision of non-farm employment data, which could lead to a higher unemployment rate in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The political interference in the Federal Reserve, particularly with President Trump's actions, is undermining market confidence in the Fed's independence, which may accelerate rate cuts and weaken the dollar [2] - The increase in gold prices has led to a situation where global central bank reserves in gold have surpassed U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years [2]