Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a potential upward trend, driven by improved liquidity and a reassessment of technology stocks [1][3][4] - Since June 2025, the liquidity environment in Hong Kong has been tightening, but there are signs of improvement as the HKD has moved away from the weak side guarantee, reducing the likelihood of further liquidity tightening [1][3] - The earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index has been downgraded from 6.7% to 2.35% year-on-year as of August 31, 2025, primarily due to increased competition in the takeaway market and lowered profit expectations in the internet sector [2][3] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3, which is at the 29.9% percentile since July 2020, indicating potential for a rebound [3] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to the 10-year Chinese government bond yield is 6.4%, significantly higher than the risk premiums of US, Japanese, and European stocks, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks are undervalued [3][4] - Despite potential volatility in September, the overall direction for the Hong Kong stock market is upward, with opportunities for buying quality assets during market fluctuations [4]
张忆东9月展望:港股补涨动力已积蓄 震荡向上慢牛行情有望继续展开
Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-09-04 03:53