Core Insights - Indonesia is experiencing a wave of protests, but the stock market is at a near five-year high, indicating underlying economic resilience despite short-term challenges such as currency depreciation and weak consumer demand [1][4]. Economic Challenges - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by 0.17% in the past month and 6.42% over the past year, with the current exchange rate at 16,414.5 IDR per USD [2]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight decrease of 0.08% month-on-month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.31%, reflecting weakened consumer purchasing power [2]. - Domestic travel during the Ramadan period saw a decrease of approximately 47 million people compared to 2024, indicating reduced consumer spending [2]. Trade Performance - Indonesia's imports fell by 5.86% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since May 2024, while the country maintained a trade surplus of $4.17 billion for 63 consecutive months, driven by coal, palm oil, and steel exports [3]. - The trade outlook may face uncertainties due to potential impacts from the US-Indonesia tariff agreement and declining coal prices [3]. Stock Market Dynamics - The Jakarta Composite Index closed at 7,885.86 points on September 3, reflecting a 20.96% increase over the past six months, indicating strong market performance despite recent protests [4]. - Economic fundamentals, proactive monetary policy, and valuation recovery are driving the stock market's upward trend [4]. - The stock market is considered undervalued based on the original Buffett indicator, with an expected annual return of +10.9% over the next eight years [5]. Long-term Outlook - Indonesia's large market size and significant role in global commodity trade enhance its resilience against external risks, with food self-sufficiency being a highlight of the economy this year [6]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from ongoing upgrades, supported by demographic advantages and deepening cooperation with major economies like China [5][6].
【财经分析】印尼抗议浪潮平息 经济仍具韧性
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-04 05:47