Market Review - The main contract for aluminum futures closed at 20,710 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 4, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 140,000 tons, down by 3,000 tons from Monday, but up by 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - On September 4, 2025, the total aluminum rod inventory in Guangdong and Wuxi is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [2] - According to research, the preliminary value of China's primary aluminum production in August 2025 is 3.7879 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year and 0.29% month-on-month; the average daily output in August is 122,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the rapid inventory buildup in various downstream sectors ahead of the peak season in September indicates a potential for demand in the electrolytic aluminum sector to exceed expectations, with profits in the aluminum industry continuing to shift from upstream to downstream [3] - Yide Futures notes that the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is recovering, supporting aluminum prices; however, aluminum ingot inventories remain below seasonal levels, and terminal consumption has not significantly started, indicating insufficient upward driving forces [3]
旺季周期内需求存超预期可能 沪铝维持区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-04 06:01