Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-04 06:07Industry Overview - The average daily production of urea in the past week was 192,700 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [1] - As of September 4, urea prices were reported at 1,650 CNY/ton in Gansu and 1,670 CNY/ton for medium-sized granules in Shandong [1] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises reached 1,085,800 tons, exceeding last week's expectations, with port sample inventory at 600,000 tons, also above previous expectations [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, there has been a relaxation in port inspections, leading to an increase in export volumes. However, domestic urea production facilities are undergoing significant maintenance, resulting in a noticeable decline in operating rates [2] - The agricultural sector remains in the off-season, and industrial demand is increasing slowly. The market is experiencing negative feedback due to unmet expectations from recent bidding announcements, leading to a short-term bearish outlook for urea prices, with a reference range of 1,680-1,780 CNY/ton [2] Production and Demand Dynamics - Recent maintenance of some new production facilities has led to a slight decrease in domestic urea production. This week, two companies plan to halt production while three others are resuming operations [3] - Agricultural demand is in a seasonal lull, although there is a slight increase in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. Industrial compound fertilizer purchases are primarily for stock replenishment, and the overall operating rate of enterprises has decreased [3] - Despite limited adjustments in operating rates due to policy impacts, there is an expectation of improvement starting from the 4th of the month. Domestic demand is progressing slowly, with some companies experiencing lower-than-expected shipments [3] - Overall, the inventory levels of domestic urea enterprises have shown mixed trends, with a slight overall increase. Following major events, there is an anticipated rise in downstream industrial operations, coupled with a phase of urea exports, suggesting a potential decrease in urea enterprise inventories [3] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,700-1,760 CNY/ton in the short term [3]