基本面呈利空导向 预计原油大概率承压震荡为主

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic energy sector is experiencing a downward trend in crude oil prices, with the main contract fluctuating between 480.7 and 487.7 yuan per barrel, reflecting a decline of 1.85% [1] - Analysts from Huishang Futures believe that short-term oil prices have strong support due to a stable macro environment and the ongoing destocking process, but mid-term risks are rising due to the upcoming demand off-season and OPEC+'s planned production increase of 1.66 million barrels per day [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes that the end of the peak consumption season and OPEC+'s expansion cycle are likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure, with a focus on the outcomes of the upcoming OPEC+ meetings [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures highlights the uncertainty surrounding OPEC+'s decision to continue increasing production, which could significantly impact oil price volatility next week; a continuation of production increases may further suppress prices, while a pause could lead to limited rebounds [2] - The geopolitical risks, particularly the tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, are identified as short-term disturbances that could influence oil prices, with potential fluctuations of $5 to $10 if conflicts escalate [2] - The overall market sentiment is currently negative, with both macroeconomic and fundamental factors indicating bearish trends, necessitating close monitoring of future developments [2]