开学效应褪去后猪价或止涨下滑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that pig prices experienced an increase in early September due to rising orders from slaughter enterprises driven by the start of the school year, alongside a reduction in pig supply from farms, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][3]. - In early September, the average price of lean pigs was 13.98 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.41 yuan per kilogram compared to August 29 [1]. - The demand side saw a continuous increase in pig consumption due to low pork prices in August, with slaughter enterprises ramping up orders as schools reopened [3]. Group 2 - On the supply side, the reduction in pig outflow in early September contributed to the price increase, with daily outflow recorded at 14.20 million heads, a decrease of 4.58 million heads compared to August 26 [5]. - Despite the short-term price increase, the supply is expected to rise in September, with a planned outflow increase of 4.19% from over 200 surveyed breeding enterprises [5]. - The market is anticipated to see a price decline in mid-September, but there may be potential for price increases towards the end of the month as some farms may choose to increase the weight of pigs being sold [5].