金价创新高后回调，短期结利和长期配置怎么选？

Group 1 - Bridgewater believes that despite the significant rise in gold prices, it still holds allocation value and can provide diversification benefits to investment portfolios [1] - Citic Securities predicts that changes in tariffs, U.S. fiscal policy, geopolitical factors, and central bank gold purchases could initiate an upward trend in gold prices, forecasting a price above $3730 per ounce by year-end under a neutral scenario [2] - Goldman Sachs has a baseline forecast that gold prices will soar to $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, with a tail risk scenario suggesting prices could reach $4500; if 1% of private U.S. Treasury funds flow into gold, prices could approach $5000 [3] Group 2 - GoldSilver Central notes that while there has been some profit-taking in the gold market, it remains in a bull market; expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve will increase safe-haven demand, with potential for prices to rise to $3800 or higher in the short term [4] - TD Securities has closed a tactical long position in gold, but remains bullish on gold strategically, citing a diminishing appeal of the dollar as a store of value; the firm will continue to seek opportunities to re-enter the upward trend as long as this macro theme persists [5] - Forexlive highlights that gold typically performs poorly in September but is expected to see seasonal strength from November to February; thus, any price pullback may present a buying opportunity, although risks remain if Trump’s tariffs face legal and congressional challenges [6]