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国泰海通:钢铁需求有望逐步边际回升 盈利中枢有望逐步修复
智通财经网·2025-09-04 08:49

Group 1 - The steel industry demand is expected to gradually bottom out, with signs of market clearing on the supply side, leading to a potential recovery in the industry's fundamentals [1][3] - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.5777 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons week-on-week, while total inventory reached 14.6788 million tons, up 268,400 tons [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a slight reduction in production activity [1][2] Group 2 - The average gross profit for rebar was 231.5 CNY/ton, down 12.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, reflecting a decline in profitability across the sector [2] - The steel industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with over 30% of steel companies still in the red, but market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to take effect [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to introduce policies aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity, which could accelerate supply contraction [3] Group 3 - Long-term trends indicate an increase in industry concentration and a shift towards high-quality development, benefiting companies with product and cost advantages [4] - Recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, which are noted for their technological and product structure leadership [4] - The report highlights the potential for upstream resource companies to benefit from demand recovery, recommending firms such as Hebei Resources and Erdos [4]