全文|张忆东：秋日胜春朝 港股长牛震荡向上 互联网板块有望迎来“深蹲后的起跳”(附20大金句)

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese equity market is entering a long-term bull market driven by a fundamental shift in economic growth patterns, with expectations of a 20-year bull run for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current bull market is characterized by a transition of social wealth from safe-haven assets to equity markets, supported by policies encouraging long-term capital inflows [1][3][6]. - The Hong Kong stock market is poised for a rebound, particularly in the internet sector, which is expected to recover from previous lows and see significant growth in the latter half of the year [1][5][11]. - Predictions indicate that the Hang Seng Index could reach 28,000 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index may hit the 6,000-6,200 range by November [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Transformation - China's economic model is shifting from debt-driven growth to high-quality development, emphasizing technology and innovation as key drivers [6][8]. - The capital market is seen as a crucial hub for this transformation, capable of optimizing asset allocation and enhancing economic efficiency [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, particularly companies involved in AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" with both performance and valuation rising [2][6]. - The internet sector in Hong Kong is viewed as undervalued, with potential for significant recovery as external and internal capital flows return [5][11]. - Structural opportunities are emerging across various sectors, with a shift from value stocks to a balanced focus on growth and value [15][16]. Group 4: Capital Market Role - The capital market is transitioning from being dominated by foreign capital to being led by domestic and regional investors, enhancing its stability and growth potential [4][12]. - The "Little Rabbit Bull" market model reflects a cyclical pattern of rapid growth followed by adjustments, ensuring a sustainable upward trend [9][10]. Group 5: Wealth Reallocation - A significant amount of liquidity, approximately 200 trillion yuan, is expected to flow into equity markets as investors seek better returns compared to low-yielding safe assets [13][14]. - The reallocation of wealth is anticipated to mirror the early stages of the real estate bull market in the 2000s, with increasing confidence leading to capital inflows [14]. Group 6: Sector-Specific Insights - The internet sector is expected to rebound as regulatory pressures ease and companies shift focus towards technology-driven growth [15]. - Value stocks, particularly those with high dividend yields, are seen as stable investments, while cyclical stocks in commodities are poised for revaluation due to global supply chain dynamics [16].