Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by -1.08% to 3765 points, and the ChiNext Index falling by -4.25, indicating a notable market correction [1] - The total trading volume in both markets decreased to 2.58 trillion, reflecting a shrinking market activity [1] - Among the 31 primary industries tracked by Shenwan, 11 showed gains, particularly in sectors like commerce, personal care, banking, and social services, while high-risk sectors such as communications, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and military industries faced substantial pullbacks [1] Market Dynamics - Recent market declines are attributed to short-term capital behaviors, suggesting that the current pullback may help alleviate the pressure from previous rapid increases [2] - The AI sector has been a primary focus, with significant trading activity observed, while other sectors have seen limited opportunities [2] - Historical data indicates that even if the A-share index continues to rise, sectors that have accelerated may require substantial corrections, with an average pullback duration of 6.4 days and an average adjustment magnitude of 2.9% after breaking below the 20-day moving average [2] Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment in September shows positive changes, with expectations of improved liquidity in the future, and the A-share market currently not facing substantial negative factors [3] - The domestic economic fundamentals remain stable, with the August PMI indicating a marginal improvement in production activities following extreme weather conditions [3] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, likely by 25 basis points, could further influence market dynamics, with potential implications for the Fed's independence and future rate cut sustainability [3] Sector Allocation - In terms of sector allocation, there is a focus on long-term profit improvement, with technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials being highlighted as areas of interest [4] - The AI sector is currently at a high emotional trading point, with recommendations to focus on reasonably priced AI applications and advanced semiconductor processes [4] - As market sentiment stabilizes, sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and financial IT are expected to see improvements in both valuation and performance [4] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy and fiscal measures by 2026 may create new investment opportunities in export-oriented sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals [4]
金鹰基金：集中消化交易压力后市场更健康 逆势布局盈利改善方向
Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-09-04 10:53