【环球财经】美关税政策给土耳其汽车业带来多重风险

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to rising supply chain costs, inflationary pressures, and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which could weaken its competitiveness and exacerbate long-term risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Cost and Profitability - The automotive sector in Turkey has been the largest export industry for several years, with exports reaching $37.2 billion last year, a 6.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - Rising tariffs have increased costs globally, squeezing supplier profits, and further cost transmission may occur when products enter other vehicle systems via the U.S. [1]. - The depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar has led to increased prices for imported components and raw materials, ultimately affecting consumer purchasing power and dampening the automotive market [2]. Group 2: Cash Flow and Export Orders - Export orders are facing renegotiation, complicating cash flow management for many Turkish exporters, as rising costs may lead to adjustments in delivery terms [2]. - The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies could result in fluctuations in orders, inventory buildup, and misalignment in production schedules, putting long-term pressure on Turkish automotive exports [2][3]. Group 3: Domestic Market and Capacity Challenges - To avoid tariffs, some overseas importers are shifting towards markets like Mexico and Eastern Europe, which may lead to some small and medium-sized suppliers in Turkey exiting the global value chain and focusing on domestic demand [3]. - The limited domestic market may struggle to absorb excess capacity, increasing the risk of supply-demand imbalances within the industry [3]. - The Turkish automotive industry is at a critical juncture, and without a push towards green and intelligent transformation, it may face severe long-term challenges [3].