美国8月“小非农”不及预期，就业市场降温迹象愈发明显

Core Insights - The ADP report for August indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with employment growth falling short of expectations, reinforcing the anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][5]. Employment Data - In August, U.S. ADP employment increased by 54,000, below the market expectation of 65,000 and significantly lower than the revised 106,000 from the previous month [3]. - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, despite a rise in initial jobless claims to 237,000, the highest since June 2021 [4][5]. Sector Performance - The trade, transportation, and utilities sectors experienced the most significant job losses, with a net decrease of 17,000 positions, followed by education and healthcare services, which lost 12,000 jobs [4]. - Conversely, the leisure and hospitality sector added 50,000 jobs, partially offsetting losses in other sectors [4]. Wage Trends - Wage growth in August remained stable, with salaries for retained employees increasing by 4.4% year-over-year, while job switchers saw a 7.1% increase [4]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy has shown signs of weakening, with a year-to-date annualized growth rate of only 1.3%, significantly below the projected 2.5% for 2024 [5]. - The uncertainty stemming from tariff policies has led many businesses to scale back their expansion plans [5]. Market Expectations - The focus is now on the upcoming official non-farm payroll report, with economists predicting an addition of approximately 75,000 jobs in August and a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [5]. - Due to concerns in the labor market, traders have increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the probability rising to 97.4% [5].