德国多家研究机构下调2025年德经济增长预期

Core Viewpoint - Multiple German economic research institutions have revised down their growth forecasts for the German economy in 2025 to only 0.1% to 0.2%, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and insufficient domestic fiscal stimulus measures [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Forecasts - The revised growth forecast for 2025 is lower than previous summer predictions, reflecting ongoing economic stagnation in Germany [1] - The German economy is expected to experience two consecutive years of contraction in 2023 and 2024, with a slight growth of 0.3% in the first quarter of this year [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Economic Performance - The lack of expected stimulation from the large-scale infrastructure fund announced by the German government is a key reason for the downward revision of growth expectations [1] - Continued U.S. tariff policies are significantly impacting German exports, exacerbating the downward pressure on the economy [1] - Despite a new agreement between the EU and the U.S. regarding tariffs, the vague terms and unchanged tax rates are unlikely to alleviate the negative effects on the German economy [1] Group 3: Sectoral Performance - The reports indicate a persistent weakness in manufacturing and services demand, ongoing fatigue in the construction sector, and a slow recovery in personal consumption [1] - If the federal government's large-scale fiscal spending plans are effectively implemented and structural reforms are promoted, there is potential for gradual improvement in the German economy [1]