【环球财经】多家研究机构下调德国2025年经济增长预期

Core Viewpoint - Multiple major German economic research institutions have released autumn forecast reports indicating that Germany's economy is expected to grow only by 0.1% to 0.2% in 2025, a downward revision from summer predictions due to factors such as U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth Forecast - The forecast for Germany's economic growth in 2025 has been significantly lowered from previous estimates, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [1]. - The German government’s large-scale infrastructure fund and fiscal measures announced mid-year have not provided the anticipated stimulus, contributing to the downward revision [1]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The German economy remains sluggish, characterized by insufficient demand in manufacturing and services, a persistently weak construction sector, and slow recovery in personal consumption [1]. - The reports indicate that the U.S. tariff policies continue to impact German exports negatively, exacerbating the downward pressure on the economy [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the negative outlook, there is potential for gradual improvement in the German economy if the federal government's large-scale fiscal spending plans are effective and structural reforms are implemented [1]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remains a significant threat to Germany's economic recovery, particularly if the decline in exports continues [1][2].