Centrus Energy Soars 202% YTD: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Centrus Energy (LEU) has experienced a significant stock increase of 202.4% year-to-date, outperforming the non-ferrous mining industry's growth of 11% and the S&P 500's rise of 10.1% [1][6]. Performance Comparison - Centrus Energy's stock performance is notably higher than peers, with Cameco (CCJ) gaining 49.3% and Energy Fuels (UUUU) increasing by 119.7% year-to-date [4][6]. Strategic Developments - Centrus Energy signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) and POSCO International to attract private investment for expanding its uranium enrichment plant in Piketon, Ohio [9]. - The company is competing for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funding to support the plant's expansion and has revised its agreement with KHNP to supply higher volumes of low-enriched uranium, contingent on receiving DOE funding [10]. Operational Milestones - Centrus Energy has delivered 920 kg of High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) to the DOE, completing initial contract phases and entering Phase III with a contract extension through June 30, 2026 [12]. - The company reported total revenues of $155 million, a decrease of 18% year-over-year, with the LEU segment revenues declining by 26% to $125.7 million, while the Technical Solutions segment saw a 48% increase to $28.8 million [13]. Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centrus Energy's earnings per share for 2025 is $4.23, indicating a year-over-year decline of 5.37%, while the estimate for 2026 is $3.36, reflecting a decline of 20.6% [16]. - Centrus Energy's total debt-to-total capital ratio stands at 0.55, which is higher than industry peers, with Cameco at 0.13 and Energy Fuels being debt-free [15]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Centrus Energy is the only licensed producer of HALEU in the Western world, positioning it to capitalize on the expected surge in demand for HALEU, projected to grow from a market value of $0.26 billion in 2025 to $6.14 billion by 2035 [22][23]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity in Ohio to meet domestic demand for HALEU and low-enriched uranium [23]. Valuation Concerns - Centrus Energy is trading at a forward price/sales multiple of 7.55X, significantly higher than the industry average of 2.86X and its three-year median of 2.26X, indicating a stretched valuation [18].