【环球财经】意大利或为欧盟—南共市自贸协定“关键方”

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government believes that Italy will play a "key" role in the approval of the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement in the European Council [1] Group 1: Agreement Approval Process - The agreement requires at least 15 member states' support and these countries must represent over 65% of the EU's total population [1] - France and Poland have shown some goodwill recently, but their strong agricultural lobbying may lead to opposition or abstention, as they together account for nearly 24% of the EU population [1] - Italy, with over 13% of the EU population, could block the agreement if it votes against it; however, the Italian government, led by Prime Minister Meloni, is reportedly positive about the agreement despite pressure from local farmers [1] Group 2: Monitoring Other Member States - Brazil is closely watching the positions of smaller member states such as Ireland, Austria, the Netherlands, and Belgium, as their collective stance could also impact the agreement's fate [1] - The European Council is expected to initiate formal discussions only when it is assured of sufficient supportive votes [1] - The European Commission submitted the agreement to the Council because it believes there is a possibility of approval [1] Group 3: European Parliament Expectations - Brazil anticipates that while there may not be a clear advantage in the European Parliament, the chances of a majority approval are relatively high [1]