美联储褐皮书：美国经济出现多重隐忧

Economic Overview - The recent Beige Book indicates that the growth rate of the U.S. economy is below average, with little sign of acceleration [1] - Most Federal Reserve districts reported minimal economic activity growth, with only four districts noting moderate growth [1] Price and Cost Pressures - Tariff policies are causing rising costs across multiple industries, with ten districts reporting moderate price increases and two districts noting significant increases in input prices [1] - The impact of tariffs is particularly pronounced on business input prices, leading many companies to raise prices to offset increased costs [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending has remained flat or declined due to rising prices outpacing wage growth, with specific pressure noted from increases in insurance, utilities, and other daily expenses [1][2] Industry Insights - The retail and hospitality sectors are offering promotions to attract price-sensitive consumers, but this has not compensated for the decline in international tourist demand [2] - The automotive industry has seen stable to slight increases in sales, with a growing demand for services related to maintaining older vehicles [2] - Manufacturing companies are shifting towards local supply chains and automation to manage costs amid tariff impacts [2] Labor Market Conditions - Employment levels have shown little change across 11 districts, with one district reporting a slight decline; uncertainty and weak demand have led to hesitance in hiring [2] - A reduction in immigrant labor is contributing to recruitment challenges, with half of the districts noting a decrease in this labor source [2] Economic Outlook - Concerns about a potential economic recession are rising, with UBS estimating a 93% probability of economic weakness based on actual data [3] - Moody's chief economist has also warned that the U.S. is on the brink of recession, echoing similar concerns raised by UBS [3]