美国桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧接受《环球时报》专访：美国正身处极具危险性的“第五阶段”

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of understanding "big debt cycles" and believes the current cycle, which began in 1945, is nearing its end, with the U.S. facing significant conflict and transformation [1] - Dalio identifies two critical warning signs for the U.S. economy: the implementation of a new round of quantitative easing and the government gaining control over the Federal Reserve, indicating a deteriorating debt supply-demand situation [2][3] - The U.S. is currently in a dangerous "fifth stage" of its internal cycle, characterized by worsening fiscal conditions and potential class conflict, which could lead to a "sixth stage" of chaos, including revolution or civil war [3][4] Group 2 - Dalio suggests that the best way to reduce the risk of U.S. government bankruptcy is to cut the budget deficit to around 3% of GDP, as the current deficit is approximately 6.4% of GDP for the 2024 fiscal year [6] - The U.S. government is currently spending about $7 trillion annually while generating $5 trillion in revenue, leading to a 40% overspend and rapidly increasing debt [5][6] - Dalio's theories have gained unexpected support from several former U.S. Treasury Secretaries and central bank leaders, indicating a recognition of the mechanisms of debt and its consequences [6] Group 3 - Dalio highlights China's remarkable achievements over the past 40 years, including a 20-fold increase in per capita income and a reduction in poverty rates to below 1% [7] - He predicts that the next 5 to 10 years will be a period of significant change for major global orders, emphasizing the importance of education, a conducive domestic environment, and avoiding external conflicts for China's future [7] - Dalio expresses optimism about the potential of artificial intelligence to drive significant advancements across various fields, although he remains skeptical about its ability to delay the next global debt crisis [8][9]