中金：美国经济最大风险仍是“类滞胀” 需要警惕金融市场可能因此面临的波动

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the biggest risk to the US economy remains "stagflation," driven by the dual impact of tariffs and immigration policies, which suppress both demand and supply in the short term and may lead to structural inflation in the medium term [1][10][22] - The US is entering a "high tariff, high interest rate" era, with recent data showing no new tariff reduction agreements since August, and tariffs on Indian imports increased to 50%. Tariff revenue is projected to exceed $300 billion this year, with future contributions estimated at around $4 trillion [1][5][10] - The tightening immigration policy is leading to a decline in labor supply and population growth, which is expected to pressure economic expansion. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a net increase of 7.3 million foreign citizens, but this influx has significantly decreased due to stricter policies [1][7][10] Group 2 - Recent economic and financial data indicate characteristics of "stagflation," with consumer confidence declining while inflation expectations rise. Reports from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board show a pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding the economy [11][12][14] - Manufacturing costs are rising, but investment willingness remains low, indicating a divergence that aligns with "stagflation" characteristics. The manufacturing PMI price index has increased, while capital expenditure intentions are still subdued [11][16][18] - The bond market signals a rise in implied inflation expectations while actual interest rates decline, suggesting investors anticipate lower real returns and demand higher inflation compensation [11][20] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve may lean towards interest rate cuts in response to rising employment pressures, but the persistence of inflation may complicate this process. Historical experiences indicate that "stagflation" is influenced by a combination of policy, structure, and market expectations [21][22] - Current challenges include a relatively loose fiscal policy, high deficits, increased tariffs, and a tightening labor market due to immigration policy changes, all of which may lead to more frequent supply shocks [22]