Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-09-05 00:17Core Viewpoint - The primary risk to the U.S. economy is identified as "stagflation," influenced by tariffs and immigration policies, which suppress both demand and supply in the short term, potentially leading to structural inflation in the medium term [1] Economic Indicators - Declining consumer confidence and reduced corporate investment willingness are evident, alongside signals from the bond market that reflect characteristics of "stagflation" [1] - Historical evidence suggests that "stagflation" is not merely a cyclical phenomenon but results from the interplay of policy, structural factors, and market expectations [1] Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may provide temporary relief but are unlikely to alter the underlying structural factors contributing to the economic situation [1] Market Outlook - There is a need to be vigilant about potential risk spillovers in the U.S. economy and the associated volatility that financial markets may face as a result [1]