美国国债意外成为赢家 “债券义警”暂时销声匿迹-美股-金融界

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market has shown remarkable resilience despite various pressures, including rising debt and aggressive tariff policies, unlike other countries' bond markets which have suffered due to fiscal concerns [1] - Year-to-date, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has decreased by over 0.3 percentage points, making it the only major bond market with a decline in 10-year yields [1][3] - The volatility of the U.S. bond market has been decreasing since April, with key volatility indicators nearing their lowest levels in three years [1] Group 2 - Recent data indicates a slowdown in job growth, which has contributed to a decline in 10-year Treasury yields, falling below 4.17% for the first time since early May [3] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are reflected in rising inflation swap rates, which have reached a two-year high [5] - Despite concerns about the Fed's independence, U.S. bond investors have not shown significant alarm, allowing the Trump administration to breathe easier regarding the 10-year yield target [5] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at limiting long-term bond issuance if buyer demand weakens, while data does not support claims of foreign capital fleeing U.S. assets, indicating strong demand for U.S. Treasuries [7] - The perception of the U.S. as a safe haven persists, with 5% being seen as a ceiling for 30-year Treasury yields, despite various challenges [8] - Market participants remain skeptical about the potential political influence on the Fed, with expectations that any new appointments will not drastically alter monetary policy [9] Group 4 - There is speculation that the White House may push the Fed to resume bond purchases, particularly long-term bonds, as a means to lower borrowing costs [10] - The current balance in the U.S. bond market is fragile, and without fiscal discipline from politicians, investors may express dissatisfaction through market actions [10] - The emergence of "bond vigilantes" in Europe and Japan could soon be mirrored in the U.S. if fiscal issues are not addressed [10]