威力传动(300904)：风电主齿轮箱新锐 产能释放贡献利润弹性

Core Viewpoint - The company has been deeply engaged in precision transmission for twenty years and is expanding into the wind power main gearbox sector, leveraging its extensive experience and resources accumulated over the years [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 2003, initially focusing on industrial reducers, and entered the wind power reducer market in 2006-2007, becoming a leading player in this field [1] - In 2023, the company went public on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market and announced plans to invest in a "Wind Power Gearbox Smart Factory Project" [1] - The company is facing profit pressure in 2024 due to cost transmission in the wind power supply chain, extended product redesign and validation cycles, and significant upfront costs associated with the new gearbox project [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The wind power main gearbox has inflationary attributes, with global demand rapidly increasing [1] - The price of a 5.X MW model is 1.5 million yuan per unit (including tax), with a price increase of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan for every 1 MW increase in power [1] - The market for wind power main gearboxes is projected to reach 26,000 units by 2026, corresponding to a market space of 41.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22% [1] Group 3: Industry Characteristics - The wind power main gearbox has a high technical barrier, with the global market concentration (CR4) exceeding 70% in 2024 [2] - Major players include NGC, Winergy, Dalian Gear, and ZF, with respective market shares of 34%, 17%, 10.4%, and 10% [2] - The domestic market is dominated by NGC, holding a significant share, while Dalian Gear follows with a 16% market share [2] Group 4: Business Outlook - The reducer business is expected to recover in profitability due to increased sales driven by high demand in the wind power sector [2] - The first phase of the gearbox project is under construction, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with large-scale shipments anticipated to begin in Q3 2025 [2] - A strategic cooperation agreement has been signed with Goldwind, which is expected to support capacity digestion through large customer orders [2] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 50 million yuan, 270 million yuan, and 490 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 276%, 413%, and 86% respectively [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are expected to be 86, 17, and 9 times for the same years [3] - The company is considered a rare listed entity in the wind power gearbox sector, with stable contributions from the wind power reducer business and significant profit potential from the main gearbox products starting in 2026 [3]