智通财经网·2025-09-05 01:13Core Viewpoint - The A-share public utility sector is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase of 1.5% in net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2025, driven by improved fuel costs for thermal power and the release of hydropower generation elasticity [1] Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The public utility sector's revenue is projected to decline by 1.7% year-on-year to 966.6 billion yuan due to a general decrease in market electricity prices [1] - The profitability of different segments is showing significant divergence, with thermal and hydropower benefiting from cost or revenue improvements, while nuclear, renewable, and gas sectors are experiencing declines in net profit and ROE [1] - Investment intensity remains high but has shifted structurally, with thermal and nuclear investments increasing by 52.0% and 52.3% year-on-year, while renewable investments have decreased by 15.2% [1] Group 2: Thermal Power - The thermal power sector's revenue is expected to decline by 3.9% year-on-year, but improved coal prices have led to a significant enhancement in profitability, with net profit increasing by 4.2% to 48.2 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin for thermal power has improved by 2 percentage points to 17.5% [2] - The sector's performance is anticipated to remain strong throughout the year due to locked-in electricity prices and low coal prices during peak summer demand [2] Group 3: Hydropower - The hydropower sector's revenue is projected to grow by 4.8% year-on-year to 91.2 billion yuan, driven by improved water conditions and stable electricity prices [3] - Net profit is expected to increase by 11.2%, with ROE rising by 0.1 percentage points [3] - The sector is likely to maintain stable electricity prices and profitability due to its low-cost and clean energy advantages [3] Group 4: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's profitability is expected to decline by 10.6% year-on-year due to falling electricity prices, despite an 11.3% increase in generation volume [4] - The approval of new nuclear units continues at a steady pace, with more than 10 units approved annually since 2022 [4] - Long-term growth in installed capacity is expected to support cash flow growth for nuclear companies [4] Group 5: Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector faces increasing consumption pressure, with wind and solar abandonment rates rising by 2.7 percentage points to 6.4% and 5.7%, respectively [5] - Revenue and net profit for the sector are expected to decline by 2.9% and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, with ROE decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4% [5] - The sector is anticipated to return to rational development as new policies and mechanisms are implemented [5] Group 6: Gas Sector - The gas sector's net profit is projected to decline slightly by 1.3% year-on-year due to a slowdown in margin recovery and pressure on connection services [7] - Overall natural gas demand is expected to decrease by 0.9%, but procurement prices are anticipated to gradually decline [7] - The gas sector's performance for the full year is expected to show a slight improvement compared to the previous year [7] Group 7: Investment Strategy - The public utility sector's performance in H1 2025 indicates that supply growth is impacting electricity prices and utilization hours, leading to divergent profitability across segments [8] - Hydropower and thermal power are expected to continue their improvement trends due to favorable conditions [8]