7月份国内市场钢材价格止跌回升

Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic steel market showed an upward trend due to favorable macro policies, increased cost support, and enhanced expectations for crude steel production regulation. However, in August, the market began to return to fundamentals, with prices experiencing slight fluctuations amid weak demand and continuous inventory accumulation [1][6]. Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 92.79 points in July, an increase of 2.69 points (2.98%) month-on-month, but a decrease of 7.67 points (7.64%) year-on-year. The long product index averaged 94.82 points, up 2.90 points (3.16%) month-on-month, and the plate index averaged 91.10 points, up 2.78 points (3.14%) month-on-month [2]. - As of the end of July, the CSPI was 95.87 points, up 6.36 points (7.11%) month-on-month, but down 1.60 points (1.64%) year-to-date [2]. Price Trends of Major Steel Products - In July, the average prices of major steel products increased across the board, with hot-rolled coil prices rising by 133 CNY/ton (4.07%) and seamless pipe prices increasing by 15 CNY/ton (0.36%) [5]. Regional Price Index Analysis - In July, the average steel price index across six major regions in China showed a general upward trend, with the East China region experiencing the largest increase of 3.37% [7]. Investment and Economic Indicators - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with infrastructure investment growing by 3.2% [8]. - The manufacturing sector faced challenges, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping to 49.3% in July, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [9]. Steel Production and Consumption - From January to July, crude steel production was 59,447 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while apparent crude steel consumption fell by 6% [11]. - In July, the daily crude steel production was 256.9 thousand tons, down 7.4% month-on-month [11]. International Market Trends - The CRU international steel price index was 186.2 points in July, down 1.0% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [13]. - The North American steel price index increased by 2.1% in July, while European and Asian markets continued to see price declines [17][19]. Future Price Trends and Policy Implications - The steel industry is expected to face challenges in exports due to ongoing trade investigations and tariffs, which may impact future pricing and demand [24]. - The industry is advised to focus on price governance mechanisms and self-regulation in production to adapt to changing market conditions [25][26].